🔹 Introduction
TVS Motor Company (NSE: TVSMOTOR | BSE: 532343) is one of India’s leading two-wheeler manufacturers with a strong footprint across scooters, motorcycles, and mopeds. Over the last month, the stock has delivered outstanding performance, outperforming both the Nifty Auto Index and the broader markets.
But what has driven this rally? Can it sustain into next week and beyond? This blog takes a deep dive into the fundamentals, technicals, market sentiment, and risks, so investors and auto enthusiasts alike can make informed decisions.
🔹 TVS Motor: One-Month Stock Performance
- Current Price (as of Sept 6, 2025): ₹3,475 (approx.)
- One-Month Return: +16.5%, among the best performers in the auto sector.
- 52-Week High: ₹3,543.05 (touched earlier this month).
- 52-Week Low: ₹1,890.45.
In the past month, TVS Motor has not only scaled new highs but has also shown strong volume support, reflecting both institutional and retail investor interest.
🔹 Key Drivers Behind the Rally
1. 📈 Strong Earnings Outlook
TVS Motor’s earnings momentum has been consistent. While Q1 FY26 results showed some margin pressure due to raw material costs, volume growth in scooters and motorcycles helped sustain profitability. Export recovery in Africa and Southeast Asia added further strength.
2. 💡 Nomura’s Upgrade
Global brokerage Nomura upgraded TVS Motor, raising its price target by ~15%. The note highlighted:
- Strong scooter portfolio (NTorq, Jupiter, iQube EV).
- Expanding exports in premium bikes (Apache RR series).
- Market share gains in EV two-wheelers.
This triggered renewed investor confidence.
3. 🌍 Sector-Wide Tailwinds
The Nifty Auto Index has rallied 10% in the last month, supported by festive season expectations, GST 2.0 benefits, and improving rural demand. As one of the top two-wheeler companies, TVS benefited directly.
4. 🌱 EV Push – The iQube Success
TVS iQube, the electric scooter, continues to gain traction with sales crossing 50,000+ units in FY25 Q1. With state subsidies and FAME-II benefits, iQube has become a serious competitor to Ola Electric and Ather. This EV momentum has been a re-rating factor for TVS’s stock.
5. 🤝 Strategic Partnerships & Exports
- Partnership with BMW Motorrad for premium bikes.
- Expanding distribution in ASEAN & Africa.
- Focus on higher-margin premium motorcycles.
Together, these strategies are enhancing investor perception of TVS as a global brand, not just a domestic player.
🔹 TVS Motor: Fundamental Analysis
| Metric | Value (Consolidated) | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | ₹1.6 lakh crore+ | Large-cap auto stock |
| P/E Ratio | ~69× | High valuation, growth expectations priced in |
| PB Ratio | ~17× | Premium vs peers |
| ROE (3 Yr Avg.) | 27% | Excellent return efficiency |
| 5 Yr Profit Growth | 27% CAGR | Strong consistent growth |
| Dividend Yield | ~0.3% | Low payout; focus on reinvestment |
Takeaway: TVS Motor is a growth-heavy stock with premium valuation. Investors are paying high multiples for its strong fundamentals and EV future.
🔹 Technical Analysis: TVS Motor Stock
- Support Levels: ₹3,219 and ₹3,041.
- Resistance Levels: ₹3,500–3,600 (current zone).
- Trend: Strong bullish momentum.
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): Near 70 (overbought, but not alarming).
- Moving Averages:
- 20-DMA: ₹3,280 (support zone).
- 50-DMA: ₹3,050 (trend support).
📊 Conclusion from Technicals:
The stock is in a bullish trend, but a short-term pullback cannot be ruled out since it is near resistance. As long as it holds above ₹3,200, the outlook remains positive.
🔹 Peer Comparison (September 2025)
| Company | Price (₹) | 1-Month Return | P/E Ratio | EV Presence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TVS Motor | 3,475 | +16.5% | 69× | Strong (iQube) |
| Bajaj Auto | 9,830 | +8% | 32× | EV (Chetak) |
| Hero MotoCorp | 4,850 | +6% | 18× | EV (Vida) |
| Eicher Motors | 4,200 | +10% | 45× | Limited |
👉 TVS Motor has the highest valuation multiple among peers, reflecting higher growth expectations—especially in EVs.
🔹 Risks to Watch
- High Valuation Risk – At 69× P/E, the stock is priced for perfection. Any earnings miss could cause a correction.
- Raw Material Costs – Rising input costs (steel, aluminum) may pressure margins.
- Competition – Ola Electric, Ather, Bajaj, and Hero are aggressively expanding EV scooters.
- Global Risks – Export reliance makes it vulnerable to forex fluctuations and demand shocks.
🔹 Forecast for Next Week (Sept 8–12, 2025)
| Scenario | Likely Action | What It Means for Investors |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish | Breakout above ₹3,500 → Rally to ₹3,600–3,650 | Accumulate or hold |
| Neutral | Range-bound between ₹3,450–3,500 | Wait & watch, avoid aggressive entry |
| Bearish | Break below ₹3,450 → Down to ₹3,400 | Tighten stop-loss, book partial profits |
Indicators to Watch Next Week:
- Auto sector demand ahead of festive season.
- GST 2.0 impact on pricing.
- EV subsidy clarity from state governments.
- FII flows in auto sector stocks.
🔹 Long-Term Investor Outlook
- Bull Case: Strong EV adoption, export growth, premium motorcycles → ₹4,200+ possible in next 6–12 months.
- Bear Case: Margin pressure, EV competition, valuation correction → Support near ₹3,000.
- Neutral Case: Consolidation between ₹3,200–3,600 for the next quarter.
🔹 Conclusion
TVS Motor has had a remarkable month, gaining 16.5% and hitting record highs. Its EV success, global expansion, and strong fundamentals make it a leader in the two-wheeler space.
However, with valuations stretched, investors should be cautiously optimistic. Short-term traders must watch the ₹3,450–3,500 zone, while long-term investors may still find TVS Motor attractive given its EV leadership and global footprint.
👉 In summary, the outlook for next week remains bullish-to-neutral, with support at ₹3,450 and possible upside toward ₹3,600+.
